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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University1.80+4.03vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.73+0.88vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University2.23+1.02vs Predicted
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4Brown University0.58+4.68vs Predicted
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5Salve Regina University-0.82+7.48vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island0.29+3.71vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island0.80+1.01vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University-0.20+3.05vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.05-1.78vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.53-1.00vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.14-3.93vs Predicted
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12Brown University0.64-3.19vs Predicted
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13Salve Regina University-0.77-0.49vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University0.64-5.49vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University1.82-9.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.03Roger Williams University1.800.1%1st Place
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2.88Brown University2.730.3%1st Place
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4.02Roger Williams University2.230.2%1st Place
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8.68Brown University0.580.0%1st Place
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12.48Salve Regina University-0.820.0%1st Place
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9.71University of Rhode Island0.290.0%1st Place
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8.01University of Rhode Island0.800.0%1st Place
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11.05Salve Regina University-0.200.0%1st Place
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7.22U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.050.0%1st Place
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9.0U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.530.0%1st Place
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7.07U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.140.0%1st Place
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8.81Brown University0.640.0%1st Place
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12.51Salve Regina University-0.770.0%1st Place
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8.51Roger Williams University0.640.0%1st Place
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5.03Roger Williams University1.820.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McHugh | 12.1% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 12.6% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| James Brock | 28.8% | 23.7% | 17.4% | 11.7% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tristan McDonald | 16.9% | 16.8% | 15.2% | 14.1% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel van Heeckeren | 2.4% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 2.1% |
| Tyler Winowiecki | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 21.0% | 35.6% |
| John Mason | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 4.8% |
| Pierson Falk | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 2.9% | 1.6% |
| Sean Morrison | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 11.8% | 14.9% | 18.0% | 13.2% |
| Joey Richardson | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 11.0% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
| Meara Conley | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 6.2% | 2.7% |
| David Vinogradov | 4.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Keller Morrison | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 1.9% |
| Emilia Perriera | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 12.4% | 19.5% | 35.4% |
| Jancy Grayson | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 1.6% |
| Edward Herman | 11.0% | 12.4% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.