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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.23+3.11vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University1.80+3.31vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University0.64+6.03vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University1.82+1.40vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island0.80+3.50vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.05+1.71vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.53+2.47vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University-0.82+5.26vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island0.29+1.19vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island0.54-0.59vs Predicted
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11Brown University0.64-1.98vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.14-4.66vs Predicted
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13Brown University0.58-3.80vs Predicted
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14Salve Regina University-0.20-2.37vs Predicted
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15Brown University2.73-11.87vs Predicted
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16Salve Regina University-0.77-2.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.11Roger Williams University2.230.2%1st Place
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5.31Roger Williams University1.800.1%1st Place
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9.03Roger Williams University0.640.0%1st Place
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5.4Roger Williams University1.820.1%1st Place
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8.5University of Rhode Island0.800.0%1st Place
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7.71U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.050.0%1st Place
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9.47U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.530.0%1st Place
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13.26Salve Regina University-0.820.0%1st Place
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10.19University of Rhode Island0.290.0%1st Place
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9.41University of Rhode Island0.540.0%1st Place
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9.02Brown University0.640.0%1st Place
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7.34U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.140.1%1st Place
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9.2Brown University0.580.0%1st Place
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11.63Salve Regina University-0.200.0%1st Place
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3.13Brown University2.730.3%1st Place
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13.31Salve Regina University-0.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan McDonald | 16.8% | 15.5% | 17.4% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor McHugh | 11.1% | 13.4% | 11.0% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jancy Grayson | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.2% |
| Edward Herman | 9.5% | 12.3% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Pierson Falk | 3.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 1.2% |
| Joey Richardson | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Meara Conley | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 5.8% | 2.9% |
| Tyler Winowiecki | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 18.9% | 35.2% |
| John Mason | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 7.8% | 5.9% |
| Emaline Ouellette | 2.7% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 2.1% |
| Keller Morrison | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 1.9% |
| David Vinogradov | 5.6% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.5% |
| Daniel van Heeckeren | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 1.9% |
| Sean Morrison | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 12.0% | 13.2% | 16.1% | 12.5% |
| James Brock | 27.7% | 18.6% | 18.6% | 12.0% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emilia Perriera | 0.3% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 20.4% | 33.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.