Race 7A

mt-hope-bay-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
David Vinogradov 8.1% 9.5% 9.8% 7.4% 8.3% 8.7% 10.6% 8.7% 7.5% 6.1% 7.0% 3.5% 3.0% 1.1% 0.7%
Pierson Falk 4.8% 6.3% 7.8% 7.4% 8.3% 7.6% 9.1% 8.2% 8.2% 9.3% 7.3% 6.7% 4.7% 3.3% 1.0%
Tristan McDonald 22.9% 20.0% 15.2% 12.8% 9.8% 8.2% 4.5% 3.5% 1.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Edward Herman 15.8% 14.6% 12.6% 12.4% 10.6% 9.7% 8.3% 6.1% 4.1% 2.7% 1.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Meara Conley 4.2% 4.6% 6.3% 5.3% 4.5% 6.9% 6.5% 7.6% 8.7% 8.6% 9.8% 9.5% 8.5% 6.5% 2.5%
Joey Richardson 6.9% 7.0% 8.1% 7.5% 10.0% 10.0% 8.0% 9.7% 10.4% 6.5% 6.1% 5.2% 2.9% 1.3% 0.4%
Connor McHugh 15.6% 13.8% 14.5% 12.7% 11.1% 7.9% 8.4% 6.0% 3.1% 3.4% 2.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sean Morrison 2.1% 1.7% 2.4% 2.8% 3.9% 3.5% 4.3% 6.1% 5.8% 5.6% 8.4% 10.0% 14.8% 15.4% 13.2%
Jancy Grayson 3.7% 5.3% 4.6% 6.1% 8.0% 7.8% 8.3% 8.9% 9.2% 9.2% 7.4% 7.9% 8.1% 4.3% 1.2%
Keller Morrison 4.8% 3.9% 4.8% 6.4% 7.3% 6.8% 8.8% 7.6% 10.3% 8.3% 8.7% 9.6% 6.7% 4.3% 1.7%
Jean-Luc Depardieu 2.8% 3.7% 4.2% 4.7% 4.6% 5.5% 5.8% 7.6% 8.3% 9.2% 9.1% 9.1% 10.1% 9.6% 5.7%
John Mason 2.8% 2.7% 3.0% 4.9% 4.5% 5.7% 5.8% 7.9% 6.8% 9.8% 10.7% 9.8% 11.4% 9.0% 5.2%
Emaline Ouellette 3.6% 4.4% 4.6% 6.1% 5.3% 6.4% 6.7% 6.9% 8.9% 9.9% 9.6% 9.6% 8.3% 6.7% 3.0%
Tyler Winowiecki 1.0% 1.0% 0.6% 2.0% 1.4% 2.6% 2.2% 2.9% 3.4% 5.8% 6.0% 7.5% 10.2% 19.9% 33.5%
Emilia Perriera 0.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.3% 3.8% 4.3% 6.7% 8.8% 10.8% 18.2% 31.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.