Race 10A

mt-hope-bay-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Tristan McDonald 21.3% 17.9% 15.5% 10.9% 10.5% 8.0% 5.7% 3.9% 2.6% 1.6% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Connor McHugh 15.1% 13.0% 12.1% 12.8% 10.3% 9.2% 7.1% 7.4% 4.9% 2.8% 1.9% 2.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0%
David Vinogradov 6.9% 6.8% 7.9% 8.0% 8.5% 8.6% 9.2% 8.2% 7.3% 9.6% 6.7% 5.3% 3.8% 2.3% 0.9%
Pierson Falk 4.3% 5.5% 5.5% 6.5% 6.6% 7.8% 7.4% 7.8% 8.3% 7.9% 8.2% 6.7% 7.6% 6.6% 3.3%
Joey Richardson 6.3% 7.4% 6.3% 6.9% 7.2% 7.5% 8.3% 8.5% 9.4% 8.2% 7.0% 6.8% 4.8% 4.1% 1.3%
Jean-Luc Depardieu 2.4% 3.2% 2.9% 4.8% 4.4% 3.7% 3.9% 7.0% 5.2% 8.4% 9.2% 10.7% 11.7% 13.9% 8.6%
Emil Tullberg 4.5% 5.0% 4.8% 4.1% 5.9% 6.4% 6.5% 6.5% 10.0% 9.0% 8.1% 8.4% 8.7% 8.0% 4.1%
Keller Morrison 4.0% 4.1% 4.7% 6.1% 6.1% 5.4% 7.2% 7.3% 7.7% 7.6% 9.7% 9.4% 8.4% 8.1% 4.2%
Olivia Lowthian 7.4% 7.3% 9.2% 10.0% 9.2% 10.4% 8.8% 8.2% 8.1% 8.0% 4.9% 4.1% 2.9% 1.3% 0.2%
John Mason 2.5% 3.0% 2.9% 3.9% 4.7% 4.6% 6.2% 6.2% 6.9% 7.0% 8.4% 8.6% 13.0% 12.7% 9.4%
Edward Herman 13.7% 13.8% 12.5% 11.1% 9.4% 7.8% 8.1% 7.3% 5.6% 3.7% 3.4% 1.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.3%
Tyler Winowiecki 0.9% 0.7% 1.1% 1.3% 0.7% 1.3% 1.9% 1.9% 2.3% 3.1% 3.8% 6.6% 7.7% 13.7% 53.0%
Meara Conley 2.9% 3.9% 4.7% 4.3% 4.9% 4.7% 6.3% 7.3% 6.7% 7.1% 9.7% 10.9% 10.4% 9.9% 6.3%
Jancy Grayson 3.6% 4.1% 5.1% 4.6% 6.5% 8.1% 6.7% 6.7% 7.9% 7.9% 9.0% 9.5% 9.4% 7.1% 3.8%
Emaline Ouellette 4.2% 4.3% 4.8% 4.7% 5.1% 6.5% 6.7% 5.8% 7.1% 8.1% 9.1% 8.4% 9.6% 11.0% 4.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.