Race 11A

mt-hope-bay-invite

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
David Vinogradov 8.9% 7.9% 9.0% 9.0% 10.4% 8.8% 8.1% 9.3% 7.4% 6.3% 6.5% 2.8% 3.5% 1.4% 0.7%
Jancy Grayson 4.5% 4.4% 7.3% 6.3% 7.1% 6.4% 8.6% 8.2% 8.8% 8.0% 9.8% 8.5% 5.9% 5.0% 1.2%
Tristan McDonald 23.7% 18.0% 16.4% 14.8% 8.7% 7.5% 4.0% 3.5% 2.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Joey Richardson 6.8% 8.3% 7.8% 8.2% 9.2% 10.5% 7.4% 8.6% 10.0% 6.1% 5.2% 6.0% 3.6% 1.9% 0.4%
Meara Conley 4.4% 5.1% 5.0% 5.2% 5.1% 5.8% 8.5% 6.0% 8.4% 10.9% 9.8% 8.8% 8.1% 6.5% 2.4%
Emaline Ouellette 4.2% 4.6% 4.7% 4.6% 5.5% 8.0% 6.7% 9.5% 8.3% 10.7% 8.0% 9.5% 7.9% 6.0% 1.8%
Keller Morrison 5.7% 4.9% 5.3% 5.7% 6.5% 7.2% 9.2% 9.1% 6.9% 8.7% 9.2% 8.1% 6.9% 5.1% 1.5%
Pierson Falk 5.2% 5.8% 6.7% 7.7% 7.4% 8.0% 8.6% 6.7% 9.3% 9.4% 7.4% 7.9% 5.6% 3.1% 1.2%
John Mason 3.0% 2.6% 3.4% 4.9% 5.1% 5.9% 7.4% 8.4% 7.3% 9.2% 10.6% 11.4% 8.6% 8.2% 4.0%
Tyler Winowiecki 0.9% 1.1% 1.4% 1.3% 2.0% 1.3% 2.8% 2.5% 3.8% 3.9% 6.3% 7.3% 11.1% 19.2% 35.1%
Edward Herman 14.3% 16.6% 11.5% 13.0% 10.7% 7.5% 7.6% 6.8% 5.0% 3.1% 1.7% 1.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1%
Connor McHugh 12.6% 14.6% 13.3% 11.0% 12.3% 10.4% 7.6% 6.6% 5.3% 3.2% 1.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Emilia Perriera 0.5% 0.8% 1.6% 1.4% 2.1% 2.6% 3.2% 2.8% 3.5% 3.8% 5.9% 6.7% 11.5% 19.7% 33.9%
Jean-Luc Depardieu 3.2% 3.5% 3.3% 4.3% 4.9% 6.0% 5.9% 6.6% 7.4% 9.8% 9.2% 11.2% 11.6% 8.3% 4.8%
Sean Morrison 2.1% 1.8% 3.3% 2.6% 3.0% 4.1% 4.4% 5.4% 6.6% 6.1% 8.1% 9.7% 14.9% 15.0% 12.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.