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📊 Prediction Accuracy
56.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.39+5.14vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.55+1.44vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.38+0.84vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy1.47+1.97vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.63+0.69vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.75-2.87vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland1.08+0.02vs Predicted
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8Virginia Tech0.07+1.62vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University0.49-0.39vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland0.94-2.49vs Predicted
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11Hampton University0.61-2.73vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University-0.54-0.81vs Predicted
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13Virginia Tech0.07-3.38vs Predicted
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14University of Maryland-2.31-0.07vs Predicted
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15American University-1.20-2.72vs Predicted
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16William and Mary-1.94-2.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.14George Washington University1.390.1%1st Place
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3.44Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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3.84Georgetown University2.380.2%1st Place
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5.97U. S. Naval Academy1.470.1%1st Place
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5.69Old Dominion University1.630.1%1st Place
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3.13U. S. Naval Academy2.750.2%1st Place
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7.02St. Mary's College of Maryland1.080.1%1st Place
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9.62Virginia Tech0.070.0%1st Place
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8.61Old Dominion University0.490.0%1st Place
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7.51St. Mary's College of Maryland0.940.0%1st Place
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8.27Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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11.19Christopher Newport University-0.540.0%1st Place
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9.62Virginia Tech0.070.0%1st Place
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13.93University of Maryland-2.310.0%1st Place
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12.28American University-1.200.0%1st Place
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13.37William and Mary-1.940.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 20.7% | 20.7% | 17.2% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Petersen | 16.8% | 16.9% | 16.1% | 15.7% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 4.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hugh Carty | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 12.5% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marina Conde | 7.9% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Reinecke | 23.7% | 21.6% | 18.5% | 13.6% | 10.3% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Kleha | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 13.2% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 17.4% | 17.6% | 10.2% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Ian Kissel | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 15.1% | 15.0% | 9.4% | 4.5% | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Scott Opert | 3.9% | 2.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 13.2% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Brown | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 13.8% | 12.7% | 9.4% | 4.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Noah Hubbard | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 8.2% | 12.5% | 22.6% | 21.2% | 13.0% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 17.4% | 17.6% | 10.2% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Emma Retzlaff | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 4.4% | 10.6% | 25.2% | 51.8% | 0.0% |
| James Cottage | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 15.5% | 27.0% | 21.9% | 11.5% | 0.0% |
| Harrison Rohne | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 6.9% | 16.6% | 31.4% | 32.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.