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📊 Prediction Accuracy
68.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy1.47+4.90vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.55+1.45vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.39+3.18vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.75-0.83vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.38-1.09vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland1.08+1.04vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland0.94+0.38vs Predicted
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8Hampton University0.61+0.28vs Predicted
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9Virginia Tech0.07+0.60vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University0.49-1.34vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University-0.54+0.02vs Predicted
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12American University-1.20+0.45vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.63-7.25vs Predicted
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14William and Mary-1.94-0.59vs Predicted
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15Virginia Tech0.07-5.40vs Predicted
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16University of Maryland-2.31-2.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.9U. S. Naval Academy1.470.1%1st Place
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3.45Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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6.18George Washington University1.390.1%1st Place
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3.17U. S. Naval Academy2.750.2%1st Place
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3.91Georgetown University2.380.2%1st Place
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7.04St. Mary's College of Maryland1.080.0%1st Place
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7.38St. Mary's College of Maryland0.940.0%1st Place
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8.28Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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9.6Virginia Tech0.070.0%1st Place
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8.66Old Dominion University0.490.0%1st Place
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11.02Christopher Newport University-0.540.0%1st Place
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12.45American University-1.200.0%1st Place
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5.75Old Dominion University1.630.1%1st Place
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13.41William and Mary-1.940.0%1st Place
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9.6Virginia Tech0.070.0%1st Place
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13.8University of Maryland-2.310.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugh Carty | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 20.8% | 20.1% | 15.7% | 14.8% | 11.8% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 5.5% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 12.5% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Reinecke | 24.5% | 20.7% | 17.8% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Petersen | 16.8% | 17.0% | 15.1% | 14.9% | 12.4% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Kleha | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 12.0% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Opert | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 6.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Brown | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 11.8% | 14.0% | 13.1% | 9.6% | 4.6% | 1.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 18.4% | 16.0% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Ian Kissel | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 14.4% | 13.8% | 9.9% | 5.8% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Noah Hubbard | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 23.7% | 18.2% | 12.3% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| James Cottage | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 4.6% | 7.6% | 13.7% | 27.0% | 26.5% | 11.4% | 0.0% |
| Marina Conde | 7.8% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Harrison Rohne | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 7.0% | 18.0% | 29.4% | 33.9% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 18.4% | 16.0% | 10.0% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Emma Retzlaff | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 11.8% | 24.6% | 49.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.