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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University1.39+5.19vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy1.47+3.93vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.38+0.81vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland1.08+3.01vs Predicted
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5Virginia Tech0.07+4.60vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.63-0.40vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.55-3.49vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland0.94-0.54vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.75-5.92vs Predicted
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10Hampton University0.61-1.63vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University-0.54+0.02vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University0.49-3.16vs Predicted
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13Virginia Tech0.07-3.40vs Predicted
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14American University-1.20-1.62vs Predicted
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15William and Mary-1.94-1.57vs Predicted
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16University of Maryland-2.31-2.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.19George Washington University1.390.1%1st Place
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5.93U. S. Naval Academy1.470.1%1st Place
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3.81Georgetown University2.380.2%1st Place
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7.01St. Mary's College of Maryland1.080.0%1st Place
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9.6Virginia Tech0.070.0%1st Place
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5.6Old Dominion University1.630.1%1st Place
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3.51Georgetown University2.550.2%1st Place
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7.46St. Mary's College of Maryland0.940.0%1st Place
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3.08U. S. Naval Academy2.750.2%1st Place
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8.37Hampton University0.610.0%1st Place
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11.02Christopher Newport University-0.540.0%1st Place
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8.84Old Dominion University0.490.0%1st Place
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9.6Virginia Tech0.070.0%1st Place
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12.38American University-1.200.0%1st Place
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13.43William and Mary-1.940.0%1st Place
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13.79University of Maryland-2.310.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 7.7% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Hugh Carty | 6.4% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jeffrey Petersen | 17.3% | 17.3% | 16.3% | 13.5% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 6.8% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Max Kleha | 3.4% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 7.1% | 3.9% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 16.5% | 15.9% | 10.6% | 4.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Marina Conde | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 10.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Piper Holthus | 20.0% | 20.8% | 16.4% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Opert | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 12.9% | 13.9% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 5.4% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Reinecke | 25.0% | 21.6% | 16.4% | 16.1% | 9.3% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Brown | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 15.8% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Noah Hubbard | 0.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 9.3% | 13.8% | 20.3% | 19.7% | 12.5% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Kissel | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 14.2% | 15.0% | 13.4% | 5.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| James Lilyquist | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 11.6% | 16.5% | 15.9% | 10.6% | 4.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| James Cottage | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 8.5% | 11.8% | 27.1% | 23.6% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| Harrison Rohne | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 8.2% | 15.1% | 32.4% | 32.8% | 0.0% |
| Emma Retzlaff | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 6.1% | 12.9% | 23.0% | 49.4% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.