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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University1.78+3.10vs Predicted
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2University of Michigan1.64+2.57vs Predicted
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3Jacksonville University1.58+1.71vs Predicted
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4North Carolina State University1.40+1.24vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida1.02+2.07vs Predicted
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6Boston University0.43+2.43vs Predicted
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7The Citadel0.33+1.31vs Predicted
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8University of North Carolina-0.24+1.99vs Predicted
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9Florida Institute of Technology0.73-2.06vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles1.30-4.49vs Predicted
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11Embry-Riddle University-1.51+2.47vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University0.65-3.66vs Predicted
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13University of Central Florida-1.69+0.98vs Predicted
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14University of Florida-1.84-2.53vs Predicted
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15University of South Carolina-2.24+0.14vs Predicted
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16University of North Carolina at Wilmington-0.98-3.60vs Predicted
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17University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.45-3.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.1North Carolina State University1.7817.8%1st Place
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4.57University of Michigan1.6414.2%1st Place
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4.71Jacksonville University1.5812.7%1st Place
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5.24North Carolina State University1.4012.2%1st Place
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7.07University of South Florida1.025.5%1st Place
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8.43Boston University0.433.5%1st Place
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8.31The Citadel0.334.2%1st Place
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9.99University of North Carolina-0.242.4%1st Place
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6.94Florida Institute of Technology0.736.0%1st Place
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5.51University of California at Los Angeles1.3011.3%1st Place
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13.47Embry-Riddle University-1.510.9%1st Place
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8.34Christopher Newport University0.654.9%1st Place
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13.98University of Central Florida-1.690.5%1st Place
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11.47University of Florida-1.841.3%1st Place
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15.14University of South Carolina-2.240.4%1st Place
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12.4University of North Carolina at Wilmington-0.980.9%1st Place
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13.33University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.451.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Larson | 17.8% | 16.8% | 14.4% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Braden Vogel | 14.2% | 13.0% | 13.7% | 13.4% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Schweda | 12.7% | 14.4% | 13.7% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Chase | 12.2% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Byrd | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Cabell | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Tollefson | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Francis "Mac" Humphrey | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Brendan Smucker | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 11.3% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Josh Rosen | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 13.3% | 17.8% | 17.9% | 13.5% |
| Grace Watlington | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nikolas Pantelis | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 16.6% | 20.4% | 18.6% |
| Marco Distel | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 13.9% | 12.0% | 6.8% | 3.1% |
| Ryan Kanter | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 19.4% | 44.7% |
| Torin Stremlau | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 12.5% | 14.9% | 15.0% | 12.4% | 5.2% |
| Erin Winters | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 13.2% | 14.9% | 19.2% | 14.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.