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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University1.78+3.17vs Predicted
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2North Carolina State University1.40+3.13vs Predicted
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3University of Michigan1.64+1.58vs Predicted
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4University of South Florida1.02+2.92vs Predicted
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5The Citadel0.33+3.18vs Predicted
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6Jacksonville University1.58-1.22vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University0.65+1.49vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles1.30-2.51vs Predicted
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9Boston University0.43-0.64vs Predicted
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10Florida Institute of Technology0.73-3.23vs Predicted
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11University of North Carolina-0.24-1.05vs Predicted
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12University of Florida-1.84-0.32vs Predicted
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13University of Central Florida-1.69+1.11vs Predicted
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14Embry-Riddle University-1.51-0.50vs Predicted
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15University of South Carolina-2.24+0.01vs Predicted
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16University of North Carolina at Wilmington-0.98-3.57vs Predicted
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17University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.45-3.56vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.17North Carolina State University1.7818.3%1st Place
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5.13North Carolina State University1.4011.3%1st Place
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4.58University of Michigan1.6414.7%1st Place
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6.92University of South Florida1.027.2%1st Place
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8.18The Citadel0.334.2%1st Place
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4.78Jacksonville University1.5813.2%1st Place
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8.49Christopher Newport University0.653.8%1st Place
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5.49University of California at Los Angeles1.3010.4%1st Place
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8.36Boston University0.433.8%1st Place
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6.77Florida Institute of Technology0.737.3%1st Place
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9.95University of North Carolina-0.241.8%1st Place
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11.68University of Florida-1.840.8%1st Place
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14.11University of Central Florida-1.690.8%1st Place
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13.5Embry-Riddle University-1.510.8%1st Place
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15.01University of South Carolina-2.240.3%1st Place
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12.43University of North Carolina at Wilmington-0.980.9%1st Place
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13.44University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.450.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Larson | 18.3% | 15.3% | 14.8% | 11.3% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Chase | 11.3% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Braden Vogel | 14.7% | 14.4% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Byrd | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Tollefson | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Cole Schweda | 13.2% | 13.5% | 13.2% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Marianna Shand | 10.4% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Cabell | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Brendan Smucker | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Francis "Mac" Humphrey | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 11.8% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Marco Distel | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 11.2% | 14.6% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 8.2% | 3.0% |
| Nikolas Pantelis | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 13.3% | 14.9% | 21.3% | 22.0% |
| Josh Rosen | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 14.2% | 16.5% | 18.4% | 12.8% |
| Ryan Kanter | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 18.1% | 41.9% |
| Torin Stremlau | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 10.7% | 13.3% | 14.3% | 16.0% | 11.1% | 5.8% |
| Erin Winters | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 16.8% | 18.2% | 13.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.