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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University1.78+3.09vs Predicted
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2University of Michigan1.64+2.64vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University0.65+5.40vs Predicted
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4The Citadel0.33+4.38vs Predicted
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5University of South Florida1.02+1.95vs Predicted
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6Florida Institute of Technology0.73+0.86vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles1.30-1.45vs Predicted
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8University of North Carolina-0.24+1.80vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University1.40-3.82vs Predicted
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10Jacksonville University1.58-5.31vs Predicted
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11University of North Carolina at Wilmington-0.98+1.38vs Predicted
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12Boston University0.43-3.64vs Predicted
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13University of Central Florida-1.69+1.10vs Predicted
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14University of Florida-1.84-2.46vs Predicted
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15University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.45-1.55vs Predicted
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16Embry-Riddle University-1.51-2.42vs Predicted
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17University of South Carolina-2.24-1.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.09North Carolina State University1.7817.7%1st Place
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4.64University of Michigan1.6414.0%1st Place
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8.4Christopher Newport University0.654.7%1st Place
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8.38The Citadel0.334.7%1st Place
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6.95University of South Florida1.025.9%1st Place
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6.86Florida Institute of Technology0.736.7%1st Place
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5.55University of California at Los Angeles1.309.5%1st Place
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9.8University of North Carolina-0.242.5%1st Place
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5.18North Carolina State University1.4011.2%1st Place
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4.69Jacksonville University1.5814.9%1st Place
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12.38University of North Carolina at Wilmington-0.981.0%1st Place
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8.36Boston University0.434.3%1st Place
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14.1University of Central Florida-1.690.4%1st Place
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11.54University of Florida-1.841.2%1st Place
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13.45University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.450.5%1st Place
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13.58Embry-Riddle University-1.510.5%1st Place
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15.03University of South Carolina-2.240.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Larson | 17.7% | 15.9% | 15.8% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Braden Vogel | 14.0% | 14.1% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Tollefson | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Byrd | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Smucker | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 9.5% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Francis "Mac" Humphrey | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Robert Chase | 11.2% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Schweda | 14.9% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Torin Stremlau | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 14.3% | 15.3% | 12.2% | 5.9% |
| John Cabell | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 9.6% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Nikolas Pantelis | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 14.9% | 20.2% | 21.9% |
| Marco Distel | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 14.1% | 13.4% | 12.4% | 7.0% | 2.7% |
| Erin Winters | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 10.9% | 13.5% | 17.5% | 17.9% | 13.0% |
| Josh Rosen | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 10.7% | 14.3% | 16.0% | 20.1% | 13.2% |
| Ryan Kanter | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 12.0% | 18.9% | 42.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.