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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University1.78+3.10vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.30+3.51vs Predicted
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3Florida Institute of Technology0.73+3.77vs Predicted
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4Jacksonville University1.58+0.60vs Predicted
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5University of Michigan1.64-0.49vs Predicted
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6North Carolina State University1.40-1.00vs Predicted
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7Boston University0.43+1.29vs Predicted
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8University of Central Florida-0.46+2.62vs Predicted
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9University of Florida-1.84+2.28vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida1.02-3.22vs Predicted
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11The Citadel0.33-2.94vs Predicted
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12University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.45+1.07vs Predicted
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13Embry-Riddle University-1.51+0.17vs Predicted
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14University of South Carolina-2.24+0.92vs Predicted
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15University of North Carolina-1.75-0.89vs Predicted
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16University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.92-2.00vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University0.65-8.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.1North Carolina State University1.7816.6%1st Place
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5.51University of California at Los Angeles1.3010.1%1st Place
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6.77Florida Institute of Technology0.737.0%1st Place
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4.6Jacksonville University1.5814.3%1st Place
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4.51University of Michigan1.6413.9%1st Place
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5.0North Carolina State University1.4014.3%1st Place
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8.29Boston University0.433.5%1st Place
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10.62University of Central Florida-0.461.9%1st Place
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11.28University of Florida-1.841.4%1st Place
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6.78University of South Florida1.026.2%1st Place
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8.06The Citadel0.334.6%1st Place
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13.07University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.450.7%1st Place
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13.17Embry-Riddle University-1.510.9%1st Place
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14.92University of South Carolina-2.240.1%1st Place
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14.11University of North Carolina-1.750.2%1st Place
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14.0University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.920.4%1st Place
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8.2Christopher Newport University0.654.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Larson | 16.6% | 16.4% | 15.1% | 13.0% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 10.1% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Smucker | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cole Schweda | 14.3% | 15.3% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Braden Vogel | 13.9% | 13.5% | 15.3% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Robert Chase | 14.3% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Cabell | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Julian Larsen | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 15.0% | 11.7% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| Marco Distel | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 13.1% | 15.2% | 14.2% | 9.7% | 4.3% | 1.8% |
| Jordan Byrd | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Tollefson | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Erin Winters | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 13.2% | 14.5% | 15.5% | 16.4% | 9.2% |
| Josh Rosen | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 14.1% | 16.3% | 15.0% | 11.9% |
| Ryan Kanter | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 13.4% | 20.1% | 36.8% |
| Runyon Tyler | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 12.8% | 16.8% | 19.1% | 20.2% |
| Joey Dunn | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 9.6% | 13.6% | 16.3% | 20.2% | 18.6% |
| Grace Watlington | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.