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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1North Carolina State University1.78+3.01vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.30+3.36vs Predicted
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3University of Michigan1.64+1.60vs Predicted
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4Christopher Newport University0.65+4.14vs Predicted
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5Florida Institute of Technology0.73+1.65vs Predicted
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6University of Central Florida-0.46+4.45vs Predicted
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7University of South Florida1.02-0.20vs Predicted
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8Jacksonville University1.58-3.29vs Predicted
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9Boston University0.43-0.59vs Predicted
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10The Citadel0.33-1.77vs Predicted
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11North Carolina State University1.40-6.03vs Predicted
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12University of Florida-1.84-0.67vs Predicted
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13University of North Carolina-1.75+0.94vs Predicted
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14University of South Carolina-2.24+0.89vs Predicted
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15University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.45-1.71vs Predicted
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16University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.92-1.99vs Predicted
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17Embry-Riddle University-1.51-3.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.01North Carolina State University1.7818.9%1st Place
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5.36University of California at Los Angeles1.3010.2%1st Place
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4.6University of Michigan1.6414.5%1st Place
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8.14Christopher Newport University0.653.4%1st Place
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6.65Florida Institute of Technology0.736.6%1st Place
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10.45University of Central Florida-0.461.7%1st Place
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6.8University of South Florida1.026.7%1st Place
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4.71Jacksonville University1.5813.6%1st Place
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8.41Boston University0.433.2%1st Place
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8.23The Citadel0.333.7%1st Place
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4.97North Carolina State University1.4013.2%1st Place
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11.33University of Florida-1.841.6%1st Place
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13.94University of North Carolina-1.750.8%1st Place
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14.89University of South Carolina-2.240.3%1st Place
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13.29University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.450.6%1st Place
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14.01University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.920.8%1st Place
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13.22Embry-Riddle University-1.510.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Larson | 18.9% | 15.7% | 14.6% | 14.1% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 10.2% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Braden Vogel | 14.5% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grace Watlington | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Smucker | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Julian Larsen | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 12.0% | 13.8% | 12.7% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Jordan Byrd | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 7.2% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cole Schweda | 13.6% | 13.0% | 13.7% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Cabell | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Tollefson | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Robert Chase | 13.2% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marco Distel | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 12.7% | 13.7% | 14.4% | 10.1% | 5.7% | 1.4% |
| Runyon Tyler | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 13.2% | 17.9% | 19.2% | 18.6% |
| Ryan Kanter | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 18.9% | 38.5% |
| Erin Winters | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 13.4% | 15.0% | 16.6% | 17.4% | 9.4% |
| Joey Dunn | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 14.0% | 15.8% | 19.5% | 19.7% |
| Josh Rosen | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 8.6% | 11.5% | 14.3% | 16.4% | 15.7% | 11.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.