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📊 Prediction Accuracy
62.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
8
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34+2.40vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.44+1.29vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland1.00+2.70vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.37-0.54vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.22-1.29vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.23-2.37vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy0.27-0.23vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75-1.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.2%1st Place
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3.29Georgetown University2.440.2%1st Place
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5.7St. Mary's College of Maryland1.000.1%1st Place
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3.46Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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3.71U. S. Naval Academy2.220.1%1st Place
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3.63U. S. Naval Academy2.230.2%1st Place
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6.77U. S. Naval Academy0.270.0%1st Place
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6.03St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Jensen | 19.8% | 15.2% | 20.4% | 16.1% | 13.7% | 9.4% | 4.3% | 1.1% |
| Peter Barnard | 20.1% | 19.9% | 17.0% | 16.0% | 13.0% | 9.0% | 4.4% | 0.6% |
| Mats Braaten | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 17.0% | 28.2% | 18.4% |
| Kelly Bates | 17.7% | 18.7% | 16.6% | 15.6% | 16.2% | 9.5% | 4.5% | 1.2% |
| Tanner Kelly | 14.4% | 17.9% | 15.9% | 15.8% | 14.1% | 15.0% | 5.4% | 1.5% |
| Umi Noritake | 16.7% | 15.6% | 16.2% | 17.6% | 15.6% | 11.0% | 6.1% | 1.2% |
| Logan Hayes | 2.8% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 10.1% | 19.6% | 51.9% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 10.3% | 19.0% | 27.5% | 24.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.