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📊 Prediction Accuracy
62.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
8
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.44+2.27vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland1.00+3.77vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.22+0.66vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.23-0.36vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.37-1.53vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland0.75+0.08vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy0.27-0.28vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.34-4.59vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.27Georgetown University2.440.2%1st Place
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5.77St. Mary's College of Maryland1.000.1%1st Place
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3.66U. S. Naval Academy2.220.2%1st Place
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3.64U. S. Naval Academy2.230.2%1st Place
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3.47Georgetown University2.370.2%1st Place
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6.08St. Mary's College of Maryland0.750.0%1st Place
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6.72U. S. Naval Academy0.270.0%1st Place
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3.41St. Mary's College of Maryland2.340.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Barnard | 20.0% | 20.5% | 17.0% | 16.2% | 13.4% | 8.2% | 3.8% | 0.9% |
| Mats Braaten | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 21.1% | 27.0% | 18.5% |
| Tanner Kelly | 16.6% | 14.4% | 17.0% | 17.6% | 15.6% | 12.0% | 4.9% | 1.9% |
| Umi Noritake | 16.5% | 15.3% | 17.9% | 15.3% | 16.1% | 12.8% | 4.6% | 1.5% |
| Kelly Bates | 16.8% | 20.1% | 16.8% | 14.9% | 15.6% | 10.0% | 4.7% | 1.1% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 4.1% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 10.3% | 17.1% | 27.6% | 26.0% |
| Logan Hayes | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 10.9% | 22.0% | 48.7% |
| Nathan Jensen | 18.0% | 18.9% | 18.1% | 17.2% | 13.1% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 1.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.