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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.10+5.17vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+5.76vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island3.23+2.84vs Predicted
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4Boston University1.44+8.33vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.82+2.11vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.44+6.55vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.25+2.41vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.64-3.45vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.43-0.08vs Predicted
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10Yale University3.29-4.46vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College2.81-3.55vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12-2.13vs Predicted
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13Brown University2.63-4.93vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.37-1.30vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont1.32-2.35vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University2.06-5.79vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College1.59-5.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.17Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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7.76Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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5.84University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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12.33Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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7.11Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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12.55U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.440.0%1st Place
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9.41Boston College2.250.0%1st Place
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4.55Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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8.92Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
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5.54Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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7.45Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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9.87Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.0%1st Place
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8.07Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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12.7Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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12.65University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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10.21Roger Williams University2.060.0%1st Place
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11.86Connecticut College1.590.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos de Castro | 9.8% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 11.2% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Tiare Sierra | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 12.6% | 14.6% | 16.2% |
| William Michels | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Jack Derry | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 13.6% | 17.6% |
| Jack Redmond | 4.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 2.6% |
| Justin Callahan | 17.8% | 16.0% | 11.6% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
| Stephan Baker | 11.0% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% |
| Mason Stang | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 0.7% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 15.1% | 18.4% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 12.1% | 15.3% | 19.6% |
| Lucy Meagher | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 3.9% |
| Skylor Sweet | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 12.2% | 13.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.