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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island3.23+4.75vs Predicted
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2Brown University2.63+5.95vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University3.10+3.27vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.81+3.43vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.82+2.12vs Predicted
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6Boston College2.25+3.60vs Predicted
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7Harvard University3.64-2.45vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.37+4.32vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12+1.10vs Predicted
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10Tufts University2.43-1.34vs Predicted
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11Yale University3.29-5.22vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University2.06-1.85vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College1.59-1.07vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.44-1.52vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-7.26vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont1.32-3.20vs Predicted
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17Boston University1.44-4.64vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.75University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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7.95Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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6.27Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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7.43Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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7.12Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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9.6Boston College2.250.0%1st Place
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4.55Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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12.32Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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10.1Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.0%1st Place
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8.66Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
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5.78Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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10.15Roger Williams University2.060.0%1st Place
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11.93Connecticut College1.590.0%1st Place
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12.48U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.440.0%1st Place
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7.74Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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12.8University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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12.36Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerem Erkmen | 12.5% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mason Stang | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Carlos de Castro | 9.5% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| William Michels | 7.3% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Jack Redmond | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 2.7% |
| Justin Callahan | 16.3% | 14.8% | 13.3% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 8.9% | 12.4% | 14.9% | 17.4% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 2.3% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 3.3% |
| Ben Mueller | 4.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.9% |
| Stephan Baker | 12.5% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Lucy Meagher | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 4.3% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 13.2% |
| Jack Derry | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 15.7% | 16.7% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.4% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 13.9% | 20.1% |
| Tiare Sierra | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 13.4% | 18.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.