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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University3.29+4.58vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.10+4.22vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island3.23+2.85vs Predicted
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4Boston University1.44+8.31vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.81+2.12vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.64-1.33vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68+0.85vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.44+4.10vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.43-0.04vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12-0.20vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.25-1.47vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.37+0.60vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College1.59-1.01vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont1.32-1.15vs Predicted
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15Brown University2.63-7.05vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University2.06-5.74vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College2.82-9.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.58Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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6.22Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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5.85University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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12.31Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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7.12Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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4.67Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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7.85Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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12.1U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.440.0%1st Place
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8.96Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
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9.8Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.0%1st Place
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9.53Boston College2.250.1%1st Place
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12.6Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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11.99Connecticut College1.590.0%1st Place
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12.85University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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7.95Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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10.26Roger Williams University2.060.0%1st Place
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7.35Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephan Baker | 12.6% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Carlos de Castro | 9.8% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 11.1% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Tiare Sierra | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 16.3% | 15.9% |
| Thomas Hall | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Justin Callahan | 15.6% | 13.6% | 13.3% | 13.6% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bruce | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Jack Derry | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 11.8% | 13.4% | 16.3% |
| Ben Mueller | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 3.7% |
| Jack Redmond | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 2.8% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 13.0% | 14.7% | 18.6% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 13.2% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 11.6% | 16.9% | 20.5% |
| Mason Stang | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Lucy Meagher | 3.0% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% |
| William Michels | 6.1% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.