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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.10+5.14vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.29+3.59vs Predicted
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3Tufts University2.43+5.78vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.25+5.47vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.81+2.12vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.64-1.27vs Predicted
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7Brown University2.63+0.98vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College1.59+3.57vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.44+3.52vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island3.23-4.19vs Predicted
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11Dartmouth College2.82-3.56vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.44+0.36vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University1.37-0.29vs Predicted
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14Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-6.06vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.12-5.14vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont1.32-3.22vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University2.06-6.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.14Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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5.59Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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8.78Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
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9.47Boston College2.250.0%1st Place
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7.12Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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4.73Harvard University3.640.2%1st Place
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7.98Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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11.57Connecticut College1.590.0%1st Place
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12.52Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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5.81University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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7.44Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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12.36U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.440.0%1st Place
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12.71Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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7.94Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.1%1st Place
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9.86Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.120.0%1st Place
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12.78University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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10.21Roger Williams University2.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos de Castro | 10.2% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stephan Baker | 11.4% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ben Mueller | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
| Jack Redmond | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 3.4% |
| Thomas Hall | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Justin Callahan | 15.1% | 14.5% | 12.1% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mason Stang | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 12.9% | 13.4% | 10.5% |
| Tiare Sierra | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 10.3% | 16.4% | 16.8% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 10.8% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| William Michels | 8.7% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Jack Derry | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 13.4% | 14.0% | 17.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 13.5% | 13.4% | 19.4% |
| Sam Bruce | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.1% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 11.6% | 13.8% | 20.0% |
| Lucy Meagher | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 4.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.