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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University2.75+5.76vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.38+6.19vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.45+4.88vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36+3.87vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont1.27+7.13vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.03-0.44vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73+3.57vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College2.72-1.42vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island2.10+0.01vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93+0.03vs Predicted
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11Brown University2.42-3.05vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.69-0.92vs Predicted
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13Boston College2.44-5.39vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University1.86-4.24vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University2.00-5.58vs Predicted
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16Tufts University2.05-6.69vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College0.66-2.71vs Predicted
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18University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.91-1.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.76Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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8.19Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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7.88Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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7.87Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.1%1st Place
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12.13University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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5.56Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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10.57Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.0%1st Place
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6.58Dartmouth College2.720.1%1st Place
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9.01University of Rhode Island2.100.1%1st Place
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10.03U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.0%1st Place
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7.95Brown University2.420.1%1st Place
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11.08Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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7.61Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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9.76Roger Williams University1.860.0%1st Place
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9.42Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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9.31Tufts University2.050.0%1st Place
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14.29Connecticut College0.660.0%1st Place
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16.99University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.910.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | 8.6% | 10.7% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Robert Ulmer | 7.5% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 14.5% | 13.8% | 5.0% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 13.2% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 1.2% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 9.1% | 11.4% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Nash | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 5.2% | 0.4% |
| Cam Spriggs | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 8.0% | 2.3% |
| Peter Busch | 8.5% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Jed Lory | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 0.9% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 0.6% |
| John Eastman | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 0.7% |
| Liam Gronda | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 12.4% | 34.1% | 11.5% |
| Ian McCaffrey | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 9.4% | 76.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.