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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.03+4.74vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.75+4.69vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College2.72+3.80vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.42+3.67vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University2.38+2.93vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93+3.80vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.45+0.70vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.44-0.37vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36-1.07vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73+0.73vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University2.00-1.42vs Predicted
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12Tufts University2.05-2.38vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University1.86-3.09vs Predicted
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14Connecticut College0.66-0.04vs Predicted
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15University of Rhode Island2.10-5.98vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont1.27-3.60vs Predicted
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17Boston University1.69-6.13vs Predicted
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18University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.91-1.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.74Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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6.69Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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6.8Dartmouth College2.720.1%1st Place
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7.67Brown University2.420.1%1st Place
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7.93Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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9.8U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.0%1st Place
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7.7Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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7.63Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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7.93Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.1%1st Place
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10.73Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.0%1st Place
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9.58Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
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9.62Tufts University2.050.0%1st Place
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9.91Roger Williams University1.860.0%1st Place
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13.96Connecticut College0.660.0%1st Place
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9.02University of Rhode Island2.100.1%1st Place
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12.4University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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10.87Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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17.0University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.910.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Callahan | 12.2% | 12.7% | 9.5% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carmen Cowles | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cam Spriggs | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 4.7% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 1.3% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Peter Busch | 7.0% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Robert Ulmer | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.0% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 10.8% | 7.5% | 0.9% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 1.1% |
| John Eastman | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 1.0% |
| Jed Lory | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 1.4% |
| Liam Gronda | 1.8% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 12.6% | 29.6% | 11.0% |
| Tyler Nash | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 0.4% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 11.0% | 14.0% | 15.9% | 4.3% |
| Noah Robitshek | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 1.4% |
| Ian McCaffrey | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 3.4% | 9.0% | 76.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.