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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.72+5.85vs Predicted
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2Boston University1.69+8.99vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University2.00+6.74vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73+6.43vs Predicted
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5Boston College2.44+2.71vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.75+0.52vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.05+2.27vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.38-0.16vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93+0.74vs Predicted
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10Brown University2.42-1.99vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island2.10-1.80vs Predicted
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12Roger Williams University1.86-1.62vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36-5.13vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont1.27-2.03vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College2.45-7.44vs Predicted
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16Harvard University3.03-10.38vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College0.66-2.69vs Predicted
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18University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.91-0.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.85Dartmouth College2.720.1%1st Place
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10.99Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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9.74Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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10.43Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.0%1st Place
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7.71Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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6.52Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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9.27Tufts University2.050.0%1st Place
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7.84Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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9.74U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.0%1st Place
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8.01Brown University2.420.1%1st Place
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9.2University of Rhode Island2.100.1%1st Place
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10.38Roger Williams University1.860.0%1st Place
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7.87Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.1%1st Place
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11.97University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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7.56Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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5.62Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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14.31Connecticut College0.660.0%1st Place
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17.01University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.910.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Satterberg | 9.0% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 1.1% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 3.7% | 1.0% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 1.6% |
| Peter Busch | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Carmen Cowles | 10.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| John Eastman | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 0.4% |
| Cam Spriggs | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Nash | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 0.6% |
| Jed Lory | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 6.2% | 1.5% |
| Robert Ulmer | 8.3% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 9.9% | 14.5% | 13.7% | 4.3% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 11.9% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Liam Gronda | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 13.8% | 33.9% | 11.8% |
| Ian McCaffrey | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 3.4% | 9.4% | 76.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.