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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University3.03+4.72vs Predicted
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2Boston College2.44+5.96vs Predicted
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3Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73+7.81vs Predicted
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4Bowdoin College2.45+3.55vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.42+2.73vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36+2.01vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.75-0.45vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.38-0.07vs Predicted
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9Tufts University2.05+0.27vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island2.10-0.71vs Predicted
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11Boston University1.69-0.13vs Predicted
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12Dartmouth College2.72-5.07vs Predicted
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13Northeastern University2.00-3.71vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University1.86-4.26vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93-5.30vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont1.27-3.63vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College0.66-2.69vs Predicted
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18University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.91-1.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.72Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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7.96Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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10.81Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.0%1st Place
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7.55Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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7.73Brown University2.420.1%1st Place
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8.01Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.1%1st Place
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6.55Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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7.93Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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9.27Tufts University2.050.0%1st Place
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9.29University of Rhode Island2.100.1%1st Place
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10.87Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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6.93Dartmouth College2.720.1%1st Place
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9.29Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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9.74Roger Williams University1.860.0%1st Place
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9.7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.0%1st Place
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12.37University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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14.31Connecticut College0.660.0%1st Place
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16.99University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.910.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Callahan | 12.0% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 1.8% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.0% |
| Cam Spriggs | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Robert Ulmer | 7.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Carmen Cowles | 9.3% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| John Eastman | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 0.2% |
| Tyler Nash | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 0.1% |
| Noah Robitshek | 4.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 2.1% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 9.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| Jed Lory | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 4.6% | 1.1% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 4.4% | 0.8% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 14.2% | 15.9% | 4.1% |
| Liam Gronda | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 7.6% | 14.6% | 33.2% | 12.1% |
| Ian McCaffrey | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 9.0% | 76.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.