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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.72+5.77vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93+7.95vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.44+4.83vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.38+3.76vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College2.45+2.55vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.10+2.96vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73+3.43vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.05+1.15vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36-1.14vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.03-4.33vs Predicted
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11Brown University2.42-3.22vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University2.00-2.30vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College0.66+0.94vs Predicted
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14Roger Williams University1.86-4.28vs Predicted
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15Yale University2.75-8.66vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont1.27-3.71vs Predicted
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17Boston University1.28-4.70vs Predicted
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18University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.91-1.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.77Dartmouth College2.720.1%1st Place
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9.95U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.0%1st Place
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7.83Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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7.76Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
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7.55Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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8.96University of Rhode Island2.100.1%1st Place
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10.43Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.0%1st Place
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9.15Tufts University2.050.0%1st Place
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7.86Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.1%1st Place
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5.67Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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7.78Brown University2.420.1%1st Place
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9.7Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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13.94Connecticut College0.660.0%1st Place
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9.72Roger Williams University1.860.0%1st Place
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6.34Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
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12.29University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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12.3Boston University1.280.0%1st Place
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16.98University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.910.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Satterberg | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 0.6% |
| Peter Busch | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 10.0% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Oliver Stokke | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.7% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Nash | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.7% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 1.0% |
| John Eastman | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| Robert Ulmer | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 13.0% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cam Spriggs | 7.3% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 0.8% |
| Liam Gronda | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 9.2% | 13.5% | 29.8% | 10.5% |
| Jed Lory | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 1.2% |
| Carmen Cowles | 10.5% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 13.4% | 15.8% | 3.4% |
| Dylan Balunas | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 13.8% | 15.7% | 4.2% |
| Ian McCaffrey | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 8.4% | 76.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.