← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Yale University2.75+5.63vs Predicted
-
2University of Rhode Island2.10+7.20vs Predicted
-
3Boston College2.44+4.82vs Predicted
-
4Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36+3.81vs Predicted
-
5Bowdoin College2.45+2.57vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93+3.72vs Predicted
-
7Harvard University3.03-1.51vs Predicted
-
8Brown University2.42-0.35vs Predicted
-
9Dartmouth College2.72-2.55vs Predicted
-
10Roger Williams University2.38-1.87vs Predicted
-
11Northeastern University2.00-1.53vs Predicted
-
12Roger Williams University1.86-1.70vs Predicted
-
13Tufts University2.05-3.96vs Predicted
-
14University of Vermont1.27-2.09vs Predicted
-
15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73-4.58vs Predicted
-
16Boston University1.28-3.73vs Predicted
-
17University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.91+0.09vs Predicted
-
18Connecticut College0.66-3.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.63Yale University2.750.1%1st Place
-
9.2University of Rhode Island2.100.0%1st Place
-
7.82Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
-
7.81Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.1%1st Place
-
7.57Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
-
9.72U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.0%1st Place
-
5.49Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
-
7.65Brown University2.420.1%1st Place
-
6.45Dartmouth College2.720.1%1st Place
-
8.13Roger Williams University2.380.1%1st Place
-
9.47Northeastern University2.000.1%1st Place
-
10.3Roger Williams University1.860.0%1st Place
-
9.04Tufts University2.050.0%1st Place
-
11.91University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
-
10.42Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.0%1st Place
-
12.27Boston University1.280.0%1st Place
-
17.09University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth-0.910.0%1st Place
-
14.04Connecticut College0.660.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Cowles | 9.1% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Nash | 4.4% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 0.3% |
| Peter Busch | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Robert Ulmer | 7.6% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 6.1% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 4.9% | 2.8% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 1.2% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 13.1% | 13.0% | 10.0% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cam Spriggs | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Oliver Stokke | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 0.8% |
| Jed Lory | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 0.8% |
| John Eastman | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 13.3% | 14.1% | 2.9% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 1.4% |
| Dylan Balunas | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 15.7% | 3.7% |
| Ian McCaffrey | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 3.8% | 9.5% | 76.6% |
| Liam Gronda | 1.9% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 14.1% | 29.5% | 11.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.