Race 1C

hatch-brown-2024

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Drew Mastovsky 8.6% 7.5% 8.7% 6.7% 7.4% 6.9% 7.3% 6.7% 8.1% 6.2% 5.8% 5.1% 4.6% 4.6% 3.9% 1.2% 0.7%
Blake Behrens 14.9% 14.1% 11.3% 9.6% 10.1% 9.4% 8.4% 5.5% 4.3% 4.2% 2.6% 2.9% 1.6% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Cordelia Burn 7.9% 6.9% 10.5% 7.4% 7.6% 6.6% 7.6% 5.4% 8.2% 6.9% 6.1% 6.2% 3.7% 3.8% 3.0% 1.6% 0.6%
Ian Hopkins Guerra 7.3% 6.7% 6.2% 6.1% 6.1% 5.7% 8.3% 6.6% 6.5% 6.7% 7.9% 6.8% 5.8% 4.1% 4.0% 3.3% 1.9%
Emma Cowles 14.2% 12.9% 11.1% 9.8% 9.2% 8.1% 7.1% 6.4% 5.4% 4.4% 2.7% 3.1% 2.4% 1.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Luke Zylinski 3.3% 4.2% 3.8% 3.8% 4.6% 5.5% 5.7% 5.4% 6.0% 5.6% 7.3% 8.5% 6.3% 7.1% 7.6% 8.4% 6.9%
Porter Bell 3.5% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3% 3.8% 4.1% 4.8% 3.8% 6.7% 5.8% 6.5% 7.7% 8.3% 7.6% 10.2% 9.3% 7.6%
Lucy Brock 5.2% 5.1% 5.3% 6.9% 5.7% 5.7% 4.5% 6.1% 5.8% 7.2% 6.7% 5.8% 7.4% 6.1% 5.0% 6.8% 4.7%
Chase Decker 7.5% 8.2% 8.8% 8.8% 9.4% 8.7% 7.6% 7.2% 6.6% 6.4% 5.5% 3.5% 6.0% 2.5% 1.4% 1.0% 0.9%
Jack Roman 4.5% 5.0% 5.0% 6.9% 5.8% 6.4% 6.7% 8.0% 7.2% 5.7% 5.8% 6.9% 6.3% 6.3% 5.5% 5.0% 3.0%
William Hurd 2.6% 2.4% 3.0% 2.9% 2.5% 3.2% 2.5% 3.7% 5.0% 4.9% 4.8% 4.9% 7.0% 7.3% 8.4% 12.3% 22.6%
Ethan Burt 2.3% 1.8% 2.2% 3.3% 4.2% 3.2% 3.0% 4.4% 4.3% 4.7% 5.8% 4.1% 5.4% 9.3% 9.7% 13.4% 18.9%
Ethan Danielson 3.6% 3.2% 3.3% 3.6% 2.7% 3.6% 3.9% 6.2% 5.6% 4.6% 6.8% 8.0% 6.2% 9.8% 9.6% 9.0% 10.3%
Shea Smith 3.4% 5.4% 4.3% 4.7% 5.3% 6.9% 5.2% 6.7% 4.8% 5.6% 6.7% 6.5% 8.3% 7.7% 7.8% 6.6% 4.1%
Sam Monaghan 3.8% 4.6% 3.8% 5.2% 3.6% 4.2% 5.6% 5.1% 4.3% 6.8% 6.6% 6.9% 6.0% 7.3% 8.9% 9.5% 7.8%
Henry Lee 3.6% 3.7% 4.4% 4.9% 6.3% 6.4% 6.3% 6.1% 6.4% 7.6% 6.2% 6.4% 8.3% 6.4% 6.0% 6.3% 4.7%
William Kulas 3.8% 4.7% 4.9% 6.1% 5.7% 5.4% 5.5% 6.7% 4.8% 6.7% 6.2% 6.7% 6.4% 8.2% 7.1% 5.8% 5.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.