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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston College2.26+6.82vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.01+6.94vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.92+2.56vs Predicted
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4Brown University3.05+1.18vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College1.57+5.59vs Predicted
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6Harvard University2.47+1.40vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.90+2.51vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University2.40-0.63vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.76+1.25vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.90-0.70vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.22+1.18vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.23+0.01vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.94-3.56vs Predicted
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14University of Rhode Island1.91-4.42vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.68-4.68vs Predicted
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16Boston University1.60-5.28vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College2.59-10.17vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.82Boston College2.260.1%1st Place
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8.94Roger Williams University2.010.1%1st Place
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5.56Yale University2.920.1%1st Place
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5.18Brown University3.050.2%1st Place
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10.59Bowdoin College1.570.0%1st Place
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7.4Harvard University2.470.1%1st Place
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9.51Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.900.0%1st Place
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7.37Roger Williams University2.400.1%1st Place
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10.25U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.760.0%1st Place
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9.3Tufts University1.900.0%1st Place
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12.18University of Vermont1.220.0%1st Place
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12.01Connecticut College1.230.0%1st Place
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9.44Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.940.0%1st Place
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9.58University of Rhode Island1.910.0%1st Place
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10.32Northeastern University1.680.0%1st Place
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10.72Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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6.83Dartmouth College2.590.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Hopkins Guerra | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Jack Roman | 5.4% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 2.9% |
| Emma Cowles | 12.9% | 12.8% | 9.4% | 11.0% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Blake Behrens | 15.1% | 12.9% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ethan Danielson | 2.4% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.0% |
| Cordelia Burn | 7.1% | 8.4% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.0% |
| William Kulas | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 3.9% |
| Drew Mastovsky | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Luke Zylinski | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 6.4% |
| Shea Smith | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.3% |
| Ethan Burt | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 22.9% |
| William Hurd | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 13.9% | 18.8% |
| Lucy Brock | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% |
| Henry Lee | 4.0% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 4.2% |
| Sam Monaghan | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.8% |
| Porter Bell | 3.1% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 10.0% |
| Chase Decker | 8.7% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.