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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University1.81+7.08vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.94+5.91vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.82+2.92vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.59+2.81vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy1.95+0.95vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.71+1.00vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College1.88-0.21vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.68-1.23vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-0.45vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.05-4.07vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.72-1.67vs Predicted
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12University of Southern California0.90-3.49vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.39-6.29vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.46-3.26vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.08Old Dominion University1.815.5%1st Place
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7.91Fordham University1.946.1%1st Place
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5.92George Washington University1.8210.8%1st Place
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6.81Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.598.2%1st Place
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5.95U. S. Naval Academy1.9511.2%1st Place
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7.0Northeastern University1.717.0%1st Place
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6.79SUNY Maritime College1.888.3%1st Place
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6.77Cornell University1.688.0%1st Place
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8.55U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.223.5%1st Place
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5.93St. Mary's College of Maryland2.0510.8%1st Place
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9.33University of Vermont0.724.3%1st Place
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8.51University of Southern California0.905.3%1st Place
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6.71Boston University1.398.5%1st Place
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10.74Princeton University0.462.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noyl Odom | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.1% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.2% |
| Tyler Wood | 10.8% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 4.5% | 2.2% |
| Trenton Shaw | 11.2% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.4% |
| Will Priebe | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 3.7% |
| Spencer Barnes | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 2.7% |
| J.J. Smith | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 2.6% |
| Lars Osell | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 9.8% |
| Charlie Anderson | 10.8% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Ryan Potter | 4.3% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 13.1% | 16.6% |
| Morgana Manti | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 9.3% |
| Noah Robitshek | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 2.5% |
| Ossian Kamal | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 15.8% | 32.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.