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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College1.88+5.43vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.81+5.97vs Predicted
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3Boston University1.39+3.58vs Predicted
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4Princeton University0.46+6.66vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy1.95+0.61vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.71+1.08vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+1.20vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.94-0.32vs Predicted
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9George Washington University0.70+0.24vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.59-3.50vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.68-4.68vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.05-6.26vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.72-3.81vs Predicted
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14University of Southern California1.25-6.20vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.43SUNY Maritime College1.888.9%1st Place
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7.97Old Dominion University1.815.4%1st Place
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6.58Boston University1.399.2%1st Place
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10.66Princeton University0.462.2%1st Place
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5.61U. S. Naval Academy1.9512.0%1st Place
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7.08Northeastern University1.716.9%1st Place
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8.2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.225.9%1st Place
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7.68Fordham University1.946.5%1st Place
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9.24George Washington University0.703.2%1st Place
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6.5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.599.2%1st Place
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6.32Cornell University1.689.2%1st Place
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5.74St. Mary's College of Maryland2.0511.3%1st Place
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9.19University of Vermont0.723.8%1st Place
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7.8University of Southern California1.256.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Barnes | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 2.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% |
| Noah Robitshek | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 2.1% |
| Ossian Kamal | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 14.1% | 32.4% |
| Trenton Shaw | 12.0% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Will Priebe | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 3.5% |
| Lars Osell | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 6.8% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.2% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 12.6% | 16.1% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.1% |
| J.J. Smith | 9.2% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 1.9% |
| Charlie Anderson | 11.3% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Ryan Potter | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 14.9% |
| Jan Matteo Bassi | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 4.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.