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📊 Prediction Accuracy
84.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston2.36+1.12vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston2.09+0.40vs Predicted
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3Clemson University0.38+2.45vs Predicted
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4North Carolina State University0.41+1.34vs Predicted
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5Duke University-0.18+1.58vs Predicted
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6The Citadel0.34-0.57vs Predicted
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7Clemson University-0.29-0.22vs Predicted
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8University of North Carolina-0.60-0.46vs Predicted
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9Georgia Institute of Technology-0.60-1.35vs Predicted
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10University of South Carolina-2.08+0.41vs Predicted
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11The Citadel-0.68-3.39vs Predicted
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12University of North Carolina at Wilmington-2.72-0.66vs Predicted
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13College of Coastal Georgia-3.72-0.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.12College of Charleston2.360.4%1st Place
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2.4College of Charleston2.090.3%1st Place
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5.45Clemson University0.380.0%1st Place
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5.34North Carolina State University0.410.1%1st Place
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6.58Duke University-0.180.0%1st Place
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5.43The Citadel0.340.1%1st Place
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6.78Clemson University-0.290.0%1st Place
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7.54University of North Carolina-0.600.0%1st Place
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7.65Georgia Institute of Technology-0.600.0%1st Place
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10.41University of South Carolina-2.080.0%1st Place
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7.61The Citadel-0.680.0%1st Place
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11.34University of North Carolina at Wilmington-2.720.0%1st Place
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12.37College of Coastal Georgia-3.720.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonnie Ciffolillo | 39.3% | 30.8% | 16.5% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Harrison Thomson | 32.1% | 29.8% | 19.3% | 9.4% | 5.6% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luke Adams | 4.1% | 6.5% | 12.4% | 14.5% | 15.1% | 14.3% | 12.4% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| William Wheary | 5.0% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 15.6% | 14.1% | 14.1% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 6.9% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Ian Hoogenboom | 3.4% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 10.3% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 11.9% | 12.6% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Tollefson | 5.3% | 7.3% | 11.6% | 12.9% | 16.3% | 13.5% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Bergendahl | 4.0% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 11.4% | 5.4% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| May Proctor | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 17.0% | 14.3% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 0.4% |
| Annika Kaelin | 1.9% | 2.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 11.9% | 14.3% | 13.6% | 16.3% | 10.3% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| Robert Gates | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 6.0% | 10.2% | 32.7% | 26.2% | 9.1% |
| Henry Parker | 1.5% | 2.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 13.5% | 17.1% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 0.3% |
| Julia Morash | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 6.7% | 18.8% | 40.6% | 22.8% |
| James Nave | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 6.0% | 21.2% | 66.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.