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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.05+4.85vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.94+5.57vs Predicted
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3Princeton University0.46+7.53vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy1.95+1.61vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.68+1.51vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.81+2.07vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+1.34vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.71-1.13vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.59-2.62vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California1.25-2.26vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.72-1.86vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College1.88-5.52vs Predicted
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13George Washington University0.70-3.67vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.39-7.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.85St. Mary's College of Maryland2.0511.2%1st Place
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7.57Fordham University1.946.5%1st Place
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10.53Princeton University0.461.9%1st Place
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5.61U. S. Naval Academy1.9512.2%1st Place
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6.51Cornell University1.6810.0%1st Place
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8.07Old Dominion University1.815.2%1st Place
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8.34U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.224.8%1st Place
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6.87Northeastern University1.718.1%1st Place
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6.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.598.0%1st Place
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7.74University of Southern California1.256.5%1st Place
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9.14University of Vermont0.724.2%1st Place
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6.48SUNY Maritime College1.889.2%1st Place
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9.33George Washington University0.703.5%1st Place
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6.58Boston University1.398.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Anderson | 11.2% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 0.7% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 5.1% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 14.4% | 30.9% |
| Trenton Shaw | 12.2% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| J.J. Smith | 10.0% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.1% | 2.4% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 6.9% |
| Lars Osell | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 8.9% |
| Will Priebe | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 8.0% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.2% |
| Jan Matteo Bassi | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 5.2% |
| Ryan Potter | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 12.0% | 14.5% |
| Spencer Barnes | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.5% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 14.0% | 15.2% |
| Noah Robitshek | 8.7% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.