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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.05+4.84vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy1.95+3.57vs Predicted
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3Boston University1.39+3.61vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College1.88+2.50vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.71+1.85vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.68+0.54vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+1.30vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.94-0.36vs Predicted
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9George Washington University0.70+0.36vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.81-2.08vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.59-4.46vs Predicted
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12Princeton University0.46-1.59vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.72-3.90vs Predicted
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14University of Southern California1.25-6.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.84St. Mary's College of Maryland2.0511.5%1st Place
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5.57U. S. Naval Academy1.9512.4%1st Place
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6.61Boston University1.398.2%1st Place
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6.5SUNY Maritime College1.889.0%1st Place
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6.85Northeastern University1.719.1%1st Place
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6.54Cornell University1.688.9%1st Place
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8.3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.224.5%1st Place
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7.64Fordham University1.946.3%1st Place
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9.36George Washington University0.704.1%1st Place
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7.92Old Dominion University1.815.7%1st Place
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6.54Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.598.9%1st Place
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10.41Princeton University0.462.5%1st Place
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9.1University of Vermont0.723.5%1st Place
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7.84University of Southern California1.255.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Anderson | 11.5% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.0% |
| Trenton Shaw | 12.4% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Noah Robitshek | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.5% |
| Spencer Barnes | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.9% |
| Will Priebe | 9.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 2.6% |
| J.J. Smith | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 2.2% |
| Lars Osell | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 8.7% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 5.2% |
| Tryg van Wyk | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 17.3% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.5% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.1% |
| Ossian Kamal | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 13.9% | 30.8% |
| Ryan Potter | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 13.2% |
| Jan Matteo Bassi | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 5.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.