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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College1.88+6.15vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.05+4.07vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy1.95+2.89vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.94+4.12vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.81+3.29vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.82-0.01vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.59-0.27vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+0.75vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.68-2.06vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.71-2.72vs Predicted
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11Princeton University0.46-0.21vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont0.72-2.78vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.39-6.07vs Predicted
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14University of Southern California1.71-7.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.15SUNY Maritime College1.887.4%1st Place
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6.07St. Mary's College of Maryland2.059.4%1st Place
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5.89U. S. Naval Academy1.9511.2%1st Place
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8.12Fordham University1.945.3%1st Place
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8.29Old Dominion University1.815.9%1st Place
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5.99George Washington University1.8210.7%1st Place
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6.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.598.5%1st Place
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8.75U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.224.0%1st Place
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6.94Cornell University1.687.0%1st Place
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7.28Northeastern University1.718.2%1st Place
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10.79Princeton University0.461.8%1st Place
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9.22University of Vermont0.724.2%1st Place
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6.93Boston University1.398.2%1st Place
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6.84University of Southern California1.718.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Barnes | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 2.8% |
| Charlie Anderson | 9.4% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.6% |
| Trenton Shaw | 11.2% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 7.0% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.8% | 9.6% |
| Tyler Wood | 10.7% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| Nicholas Sessions | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 2.7% |
| Lars Osell | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 12.6% | 9.6% |
| J.J. Smith | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 2.9% |
| Will Priebe | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 4.6% |
| Ossian Kamal | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 14.2% | 35.8% |
| Ryan Potter | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 12.1% | 16.2% |
| Noah Robitshek | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 2.9% |
| Hudson Mayfield | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 2.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.