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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy1.39+5.77vs Predicted
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2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99+6.23vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.44+3.70vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University1.07+3.94vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California1.40+0.90vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.18+1.46vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.14+0.25vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68-2.08vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.98-3.76vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.56-0.78vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.77-5.40vs Predicted
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12Princeton University0.27-1.79vs Predicted
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13Rollins College0.95-4.73vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.29-3.70vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.77U. S. Naval Academy1.398.8%1st Place
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8.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.995.5%1st Place
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6.7George Washington University1.448.8%1st Place
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7.94Northeastern University1.075.8%1st Place
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5.9University of Southern California1.4010.1%1st Place
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7.46Cornell University1.186.0%1st Place
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7.25Boston University1.146.8%1st Place
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5.92St. Mary's College of Maryland1.689.5%1st Place
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5.24Fordham University1.9813.6%1st Place
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9.22University of Vermont0.564.2%1st Place
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5.6Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.7711.8%1st Place
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10.21Princeton University0.272.5%1st Place
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8.27Rollins College0.954.2%1st Place
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10.3SUNY Maritime College0.292.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Martin | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 2.6% |
| Reed McAllister | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 7.0% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 8.8% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 2.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 6.0% |
| Luke Harris | 10.1% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.8% |
| Pilar Cundey | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 4.0% |
| Tiare Sierra | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 3.8% |
| Nathan Jensen | 9.5% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| Jacob Zils | 13.6% | 12.2% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 13.0% | 14.7% |
| Juan Carlos LaCerda Jones | 11.8% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Jasper Waldman | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 25.8% |
| Milo Miller | 4.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 6.9% |
| Marcus Adam | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 14.8% | 24.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.