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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania1.77+5.54vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.10+6.06vs Predicted
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3Stanford University3.30+0.02vs Predicted
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4Boston University1.14+5.38vs Predicted
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5Bowdoin College1.51+4.34vs Predicted
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6Cornell University2.38-0.15vs Predicted
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7Harvard University2.10+1.84vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77-0.97vs Predicted
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9North Carolina State University0.26+3.59vs Predicted
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10Boston College2.09-3.68vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University0.97-0.51vs Predicted
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12University of Hawaii1.05-1.69vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.91-1.68vs Predicted
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14University of South Florida1.60-5.27vs Predicted
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15Fordham University0.71-2.09vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland0.67-4.28vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin0.70-4.99vs Predicted
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18University of Texas-1.43-1.46vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.54University of Pennsylvania1.778.6%1st Place
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8.06Dartmouth College2.106.4%1st Place
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3.02Stanford University3.3028.9%1st Place
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9.38Boston University1.143.5%1st Place
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9.34Bowdoin College1.513.2%1st Place
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5.85Cornell University2.389.9%1st Place
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8.84Harvard University2.104.6%1st Place
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7.03Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.776.0%1st Place
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12.59North Carolina State University0.261.7%1st Place
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6.32Boston College2.098.9%1st Place
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10.49Old Dominion University0.972.9%1st Place
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10.31University of Hawaii1.052.9%1st Place
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11.32Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.912.5%1st Place
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8.73University of South Florida1.604.5%1st Place
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12.91Fordham University0.711.8%1st Place
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11.72St. Mary's College of Maryland0.671.8%1st Place
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12.01University of Wisconsin0.701.5%1st Place
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16.54University of Texas-1.430.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sofia Segalla | 8.6% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Young | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 28.9% | 22.1% | 16.1% | 12.6% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tiare Sierra | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 0.5% |
| Kyra Phelan | 3.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 0.4% |
| Bridget Green | 9.9% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cordelia Burn | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Brooke Schmelz | 6.0% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Evelyn Hannah | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 12.9% | 15.4% | 7.5% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gianna Dewey | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 1.2% |
| Vivian Bonsager | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 1.8% |
| Elizabeth Starck | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 3.1% |
| Kay Brunsvold | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Lizzie Cochran | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 13.6% | 16.6% | 8.5% |
| Cho-Cho Williams | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 3.8% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 12.8% | 4.5% |
| Sophia Herrada | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 10.5% | 67.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.