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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy1.39+5.65vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland1.68+3.84vs Predicted
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3George Washington University1.44+3.67vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.98+1.21vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont0.56+4.06vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University0.86+2.50vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California1.40-0.88vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.99-0.09vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College0.29+1.01vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.13-5.30vs Predicted
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11Princeton University0.27-0.93vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.07-4.22vs Predicted
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13Cornell University0.61-3.71vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.14-6.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.65U. S. Naval Academy1.397.3%1st Place
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5.84St. Mary's College of Maryland1.6811.1%1st Place
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6.67George Washington University1.447.8%1st Place
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5.21Fordham University1.9813.7%1st Place
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9.06University of Vermont0.563.6%1st Place
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8.5Old Dominion University0.864.2%1st Place
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6.12University of Southern California1.4010.2%1st Place
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7.91U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.995.3%1st Place
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10.01SUNY Maritime College0.292.8%1st Place
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4.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.1316.0%1st Place
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10.07Princeton University0.272.3%1st Place
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7.78Northeastern University1.075.6%1st Place
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9.29Cornell University0.613.0%1st Place
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7.19Boston University1.147.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Martin | 7.3% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.2% |
| Nathan Jensen | 11.1% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Jedidiah Bechtel | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 1.9% |
| Jacob Zils | 13.7% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Gavin Sanborn | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 12.6% |
| Sam Riley | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 7.9% |
| Luke Harris | 10.2% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| Reed McAllister | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 5.2% |
| Marcus Adam | 2.8% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 14.4% | 23.5% |
| JJ Klempen | 16.0% | 13.7% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% |
| Jasper Waldman | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 15.1% | 21.8% |
| Joshua Dillon | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 4.8% |
| Maya Conway | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 12.0% | 14.5% |
| Tiare Sierra | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 3.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.