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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University3.33+4.49vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.82+5.24vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+4.52vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island3.23+2.02vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University3.10+1.15vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.03+0.78vs Predicted
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7Tufts University2.43+1.79vs Predicted
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8Brown University2.29+1.11vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College1.59+2.93vs Predicted
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10Boston College2.67-2.21vs Predicted
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11Yale University3.29-5.13vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.69-0.58vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73-1.59vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.37-1.39vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont1.32-2.43vs Predicted
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16Olin College of Engineering0.52-1.21vs Predicted
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17Bowdoin College2.81-9.51vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.49Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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7.24Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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7.52U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.1%1st Place
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6.02University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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6.15Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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6.78Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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8.79Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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9.11Brown University2.290.1%1st Place
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11.93Connecticut College1.590.0%1st Place
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7.79Boston College2.670.1%1st Place
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5.87Yale University3.290.1%1st Place
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11.42Boston University1.690.0%1st Place
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11.41Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.0%1st Place
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12.61Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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12.57University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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14.79Olin College of Engineering0.520.0%1st Place
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7.49Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guthrie Braun | 13.3% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Michels | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Colman Schofield | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 10.6% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 11.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Carlos de Castro | 11.2% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 7.9% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 0.7% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 0.9% |
| Skylor Sweet | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 12.7% | 13.1% | 9.3% |
| Peter Joslin | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Stephan Baker | 12.1% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Noah Robitshek | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 11.5% | 6.6% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 10.7% | 7.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 13.7% | 15.9% | 14.9% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 1.3% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 13.6% | 16.2% | 15.0% |
| James Jagielski | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 10.9% | 17.2% | 44.0% |
| Thomas Hall | 5.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.