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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island3.23+4.44vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.12+3.78vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.81+3.95vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College2.82+2.93vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University3.10+0.82vs Predicted
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6Brown University3.33-0.65vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.25+1.98vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.43+0.21vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73+1.99vs Predicted
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10Brown University2.29-1.27vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College1.59+0.38vs Predicted
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12Olin College of Engineering0.52+2.47vs Predicted
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13Harvard University3.03-6.71vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.44-2.04vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.37-2.95vs Predicted
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16U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59-4.60vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont1.32-4.73vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.44University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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5.78Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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6.95Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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6.93Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
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5.82Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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5.35Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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8.98Boston College2.250.1%1st Place
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8.21Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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10.99Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.0%1st Place
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8.73Brown University2.290.0%1st Place
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11.38Connecticut College1.590.0%1st Place
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14.47Olin College of Engineering0.520.0%1st Place
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6.29Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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11.96Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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12.05Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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11.4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
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12.27University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerem Erkmen | 12.5% | 13.8% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Egan | 10.3% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Hall | 8.2% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| William Michels | 9.4% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Carlos de Castro | 11.4% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 11.5% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Redmond | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Ben Mueller | 6.1% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 0.3% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 8.1% | 5.4% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.6% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 7.3% |
| James Jagielski | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 8.8% | 15.0% | 42.9% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 10.1% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Tiare Sierra | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 15.8% | 9.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.4% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 13.9% | 11.6% |
| Peter McGonagle | 2.3% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 7.1% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 14.5% | 13.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.