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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.81+5.83vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.43+6.30vs Predicted
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3Brown University3.33+2.25vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.10+2.09vs Predicted
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5Boston College2.44+3.25vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College1.59+5.57vs Predicted
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7University of Rhode Island3.23-1.46vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.44+3.64vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.73+2.03vs Predicted
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10Harvard University3.03-3.90vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.59+0.46vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont1.32+0.30vs Predicted
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13Brown University2.29-4.01vs Predicted
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14Yale University3.12-7.97vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.37-2.90vs Predicted
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16Olin College of Engineering0.52-1.47vs Predicted
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17Dartmouth College2.82-9.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.83Bowdoin College2.810.1%1st Place
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8.3Tufts University2.430.1%1st Place
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5.25Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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6.09Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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8.25Boston College2.440.1%1st Place
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11.57Connecticut College1.590.0%1st Place
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5.54University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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11.64Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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11.03Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.730.0%1st Place
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6.1Harvard University3.030.1%1st Place
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11.46U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.590.0%1st Place
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12.3University of Vermont1.320.0%1st Place
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8.99Brown University2.290.0%1st Place
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6.03Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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12.1Northeastern University1.370.0%1st Place
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14.53Olin College of Engineering0.520.0%1st Place
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7.01Dartmouth College2.820.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Hall | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Ben Mueller | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.8% |
| Guthrie Braun | 13.1% | 13.6% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Carlos de Castro | 10.1% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Peter Busch | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 0.7% |
| Skylor Sweet | 2.6% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 11.4% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 7.2% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 11.6% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Tiare Sierra | 2.6% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 13.8% | 9.1% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 8.6% | 5.6% |
| Mitchell Callahan | 10.2% | 8.4% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Peter McGonagle | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 13.2% | 9.8% | 9.2% |
| Calvin Lamosse | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 15.5% | 12.7% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 5.7% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| Jack Egan | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Dillon | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 14.7% | 12.5% |
| James Jagielski | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 17.0% | 40.3% |
| William Michels | 6.6% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.