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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.63+5.86vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College2.72+4.60vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College2.45+4.71vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University2.30+4.32vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.77+1.40vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island2.10+3.17vs Predicted
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7Boston College2.82-0.64vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.66+2.35vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.60+2.04vs Predicted
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10Brown University3.05-4.47vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.27+0.96vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College1.23+0.05vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.76-2.55vs Predicted
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14Harvard University2.87-7.67vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.36-6.99vs Predicted
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16Northeastern University2.00-6.61vs Predicted
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17Olin College of Engineering-1.07-0.55vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.86Brown University2.630.1%1st Place
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6.6Dartmouth College2.720.1%1st Place
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7.71Bowdoin College2.450.1%1st Place
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8.32Roger Williams University2.300.1%1st Place
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6.4Yale University2.770.1%1st Place
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9.17University of Rhode Island2.100.0%1st Place
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6.36Boston College2.820.1%1st Place
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10.35Tufts University1.660.0%1st Place
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11.04Boston University1.600.0%1st Place
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5.53Brown University3.050.1%1st Place
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11.96University of Vermont1.270.0%1st Place
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12.05Connecticut College1.230.0%1st Place
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10.45U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.760.0%1st Place
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6.33Harvard University2.870.1%1st Place
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8.01Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.360.1%1st Place
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9.39Northeastern University2.000.0%1st Place
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16.45Olin College of Engineering-1.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Stang | 9.0% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Satterberg | 9.6% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.7% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Morgan Pinckney | 9.4% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Nash | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 3.9% | 0.3% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 9.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Wyatt Bischoff | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 11.7% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 0.7% |
| Porter Bell | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 12.5% | 12.8% | 2.2% |
| Blake Behrens | 11.9% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Christian Cushman | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 12.6% | 23.5% | 4.1% |
| William Hurd | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 9.9% | 15.3% | 21.0% | 5.2% |
| Luke Zylinski | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 6.9% | 2.7% |
| Robby Meek | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Robert Ulmer | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 9.6% | 4.7% | 9.3% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.2% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 0.5% |
| Benjamin Ely | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 6.7% | 83.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.