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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.76+9.10vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.13+11.01vs Predicted
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3Harvard University3.64+3.47vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.10+4.66vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston3.10+3.52vs Predicted
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6Stanford University3.53+0.79vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.98+2.44vs Predicted
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8Tufts University2.43+3.45vs Predicted
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9Boston College2.53+2.11vs Predicted
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10Yale University3.12-1.45vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island3.23-2.84vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.68-1.25vs Predicted
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13University of Miami2.66-1.96vs Predicted
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14Brown University3.33-6.44vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy2.99-5.89vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin0.53+1.83vs Predicted
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17Cornell University2.32-5.02vs Predicted
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18Tulane University2.45-6.39vs Predicted
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19Dartmouth College2.45-7.48vs Predicted
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20Connecticut College1.23-3.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.760.0%1st Place
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13.01University of Pennsylvania2.130.0%1st Place
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6.47Harvard University3.640.1%1st Place
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8.66Roger Williams University3.100.1%1st Place
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8.52College of Charleston3.100.1%1st Place
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6.79Stanford University3.530.1%1st Place
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9.44St. Mary's College of Maryland2.980.0%1st Place
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11.45Tufts University2.430.0%1st Place
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11.11Boston College2.530.0%1st Place
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8.55Yale University3.120.1%1st Place
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8.16University of Rhode Island3.230.1%1st Place
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10.75Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.680.0%1st Place
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11.04University of Miami2.660.0%1st Place
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7.56Brown University3.330.1%1st Place
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9.11U. S. Naval Academy2.990.1%1st Place
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17.83University of Wisconsin0.530.0%1st Place
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11.98Cornell University2.320.0%1st Place
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11.61Tulane University2.450.0%1st Place
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11.52Dartmouth College2.450.0%1st Place
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16.32Connecticut College1.230.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colman Schofield | 4.5% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Cole Woodworth | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 5.1% |
| Justin Callahan | 11.2% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Carlos de Castro | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.8% |
| Noah Zittrer | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Sitzmann | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Ben Mueller | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 1.8% |
| Michael Kirkman | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 1.5% |
| Jack Egan | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bruce | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| Atlee Kohl | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 1.0% |
| Guthrie Braun | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Smith | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Jacqueline Ruggieri | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 0.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 7.8% | 15.4% | 54.5% |
| Sophia Devling | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 3.0% |
| Kelly Holthus | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 5.3% | 2.9% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 4.7% | 1.8% |
| William Hurd | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 25.8% | 24.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.