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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.20+4.47vs Predicted
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2Brown University1.99+4.83vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island0.99+7.08vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy1.18+6.16vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.22+5.07vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University1.97+0.96vs Predicted
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7Yale University2.71-3.03vs Predicted
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8Tulane University2.02-2.08vs Predicted
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9College of Charleston1.81-1.52vs Predicted
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10George Washington University0.93+0.62vs Predicted
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11Jacksonville University-1.38-3.68vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.49-0.80vs Predicted
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13Tufts University0.54-2.17vs Predicted
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14Clemson University0.73-3.82vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.65-1.48vs Predicted
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16Rollins College-0.06-2.30vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont-0.05-3.01vs Predicted
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18Northwestern University0.16-5.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.47Georgetown University2.2012.1%1st Place
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6.83Brown University1.997.1%1st Place
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10.08University of Rhode Island0.993.7%1st Place
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10.16U. S. Naval Academy1.183.4%1st Place
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10.07Northeastern University1.223.4%1st Place
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6.96Roger Williams University1.978.3%1st Place
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3.97Yale University2.7120.1%1st Place
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5.92Tulane University2.0211.5%1st Place
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7.48College of Charleston1.815.8%1st Place
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10.62George Washington University0.933.4%1st Place
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7.32Jacksonville University-1.387.0%1st Place
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11.2U. S. Coast Guard Academy0.492.3%1st Place
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10.83Tufts University0.542.7%1st Place
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10.18Clemson University0.733.6%1st Place
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13.52Christopher Newport University0.651.5%1st Place
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13.7Rollins College-0.061.3%1st Place
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13.99University of Vermont-0.051.4%1st Place
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12.7Northwestern University0.161.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Piper Holthus | 12.1% | 13.1% | 10.7% | 10.7% | 10.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Katharine Doble | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Kytalin Hendrickson | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.1% |
| Ava Farley | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 1.9% |
| Eva Ermlich | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 2.3% |
| Lucy Meagher | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Mia Nicolosi | 20.1% | 17.4% | 14.8% | 12.9% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Gardner | 11.5% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 9.5% | 10.2% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Emma Tallman | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Avery Canavan | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 3.4% |
| Emily Allen | 7.0% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Ella Demand | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.0% |
| Maisie MacGillivray | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% |
| Nilah Miller | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 2.5% |
| Grace Watlington | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 16.1% | 18.8% |
| KA Hamner | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 16.1% | 20.8% |
| Ella Towner | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 16.1% | 26.1% |
| Grace Bray | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 12.6% | 10.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.