Race 5A

mccurdy

← Back to Regatta

📊 Prediction Accuracy

61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
James Cottage 8.9% 10.8% 10.8% 13.4% 15.4% 13.0% 12.5% 7.3% 4.9% 2.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0%
Aidan Gurskis 33.1% 26.0% 19.1% 9.1% 7.7% 3.5% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mia Graziano 4.8% 5.2% 5.6% 7.5% 9.4% 9.8% 12.8% 15.4% 14.7% 9.9% 4.2% 0.7% 0.0%
Lara Nielsen 4.6% 7.1% 9.9% 13.8% 12.1% 14.0% 11.7% 11.2% 9.4% 5.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0%
Henry Powell 6.9% 8.0% 11.3% 13.1% 13.0% 13.8% 11.6% 8.7% 7.4% 5.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Zachary Bender 28.1% 25.2% 18.9% 14.0% 7.2% 3.6% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Johnny Leadingham 6.4% 6.7% 10.1% 10.9% 11.3% 13.4% 12.6% 13.1% 7.7% 4.7% 2.4% 0.7% 0.0%
Vaughn Lynch 1.9% 4.4% 3.4% 5.1% 7.8% 7.8% 8.8% 12.9% 16.1% 17.7% 10.7% 3.4% 0.0%
John Anthony Caraig 3.1% 3.2% 5.5% 8.6% 9.8% 11.9% 13.2% 14.3% 15.3% 10.4% 4.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Sarra Salah 0.9% 1.7% 3.7% 2.7% 4.1% 4.5% 7.4% 9.2% 13.1% 21.8% 20.5% 10.4% 0.0%
Cheyenne Fair 0.8% 1.0% 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% 2.9% 3.7% 3.9% 7.0% 14.0% 31.6% 31.8% 0.0%
August Bellanca 0.5% 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% 1.0% 1.8% 2.4% 3.1% 4.2% 9.0% 23.6% 52.3% 0.0%
Zachary Bender 28.1% 25.2% 18.9% 14.0% 7.2% 3.6% 2.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.