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📊 Prediction Accuracy
71.4%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.34+1.96vs Predicted
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2McGill University-0.77+2.69vs Predicted
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3Middlebury College0.43-0.13vs Predicted
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4Bates College-0.59+0.50vs Predicted
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5University of Massachusetts at Amherst0.08-1.55vs Predicted
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6University of New Hampshire-0.13-2.25vs Predicted
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7Amherst College-1.61-1.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.96Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.340.2%1st Place
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4.69McGill University-0.770.1%1st Place
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2.87Middlebury College0.430.3%1st Place
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4.5Bates College-0.590.1%1st Place
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3.45University of Massachusetts at Amherst0.080.2%1st Place
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3.75University of New Hampshire-0.130.1%1st Place
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5.79Amherst College-1.610.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Kenahan | 24.5% | 22.0% | 18.5% | 14.8% | 10.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% |
| Cecilia Muller | 7.4% | 7.8% | 12.1% | 13.6% | 16.8% | 25.1% | 17.2% |
| Walter Chiles | 25.9% | 22.6% | 18.1% | 15.7% | 10.2% | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| Colby Green | 8.3% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 13.9% | 19.3% | 22.1% | 14.4% |
| William Delong | 16.3% | 19.1% | 16.8% | 17.8% | 15.5% | 9.8% | 4.7% |
| Sean Lund | 13.7% | 14.7% | 16.7% | 17.6% | 17.7% | 14.2% | 5.4% |
| Adrian Whitney | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 9.8% | 16.6% | 53.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.