Race 1A

ny-maritime-fall-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Everett Botwinick 24.4% 22.4% 16.8% 13.9% 9.8% 5.1% 4.4% 2.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Noah Hemingway 5.7% 7.4% 8.6% 9.2% 10.1% 10.1% 11.9% 11.7% 11.4% 7.7% 5.1% 1.1%
Oscar Gilroy 3.7% 2.8% 3.2% 4.2% 5.1% 5.5% 6.6% 9.7% 11.7% 18.1% 17.3% 12.1%
Elizabeth Frost 8.5% 12.2% 10.6% 13.8% 11.5% 12.6% 9.2% 8.2% 7.1% 4.0% 1.9% 0.4%
Joseph Bonacci 6.8% 7.3% 8.7% 9.8% 9.7% 11.2% 10.9% 11.8% 9.6% 8.0% 4.9% 1.3%
Nathaniel Hartwell 8.6% 8.1% 8.9% 10.3% 11.9% 11.1% 11.4% 10.1% 9.0% 6.0% 4.2% 0.4%
Jack Hammett 5.1% 4.2% 7.0% 6.3% 9.3% 8.1% 9.5% 11.3% 13.2% 11.6% 10.0% 4.4%
Matias Martin 16.6% 14.9% 13.6% 11.8% 9.8% 12.5% 8.2% 6.4% 2.9% 2.2% 0.7% 0.4%
James Owen 13.5% 13.7% 15.1% 11.8% 13.0% 10.3% 9.6% 6.1% 4.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Berkley Yiu 4.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 5.2% 7.2% 8.3% 9.3% 14.7% 13.6% 16.4% 9.3%
Tess Halpern 1.5% 1.5% 0.9% 0.7% 2.0% 2.7% 3.8% 5.3% 4.3% 11.5% 17.0% 48.8%
William Mullray 1.6% 2.5% 2.6% 3.2% 2.6% 3.6% 6.2% 8.1% 10.3% 15.7% 21.8% 21.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.