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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute1.54+2.15vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.16+4.16vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College0.37+2.71vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.73+4.48vs Predicted
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5University of Texas0.93-0.69vs Predicted
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6University of Michigan-0.22+1.18vs Predicted
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7Columbia University0.63-2.05vs Predicted
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8Fordham University0.81-3.48vs Predicted
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9Princeton University-0.59-1.00vs Predicted
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10Washington College0.21-4.00vs Predicted
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11Williams College-1.62-0.68vs Predicted
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12Florida Institute of Technology-1.07-2.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.15Webb Institute1.540.2%1st Place
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6.16Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.160.1%1st Place
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5.71SUNY Maritime College0.370.1%1st Place
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8.48U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.730.0%1st Place
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4.31University of Texas0.930.2%1st Place
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7.18University of Michigan-0.220.0%1st Place
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4.95Columbia University0.630.1%1st Place
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4.52Fordham University0.810.2%1st Place
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8.0Princeton University-0.590.0%1st Place
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6.0Washington College0.210.1%1st Place
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10.32Williams College-1.620.0%1st Place
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9.22Florida Institute of Technology-1.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everett Botwinick | 23.9% | 22.9% | 16.3% | 15.0% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Noah Hemingway | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 4.3% | 1.5% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 9.0% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Oscar Gilroy | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 12.5% | 15.4% | 16.3% | 14.2% |
| Matias Martin | 15.2% | 13.3% | 15.6% | 12.9% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Hammett | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 12.4% | 13.2% | 14.7% | 8.8% | 3.8% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 11.3% | 12.5% | 11.0% | 11.9% | 12.9% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| James Owen | 15.1% | 13.0% | 12.7% | 11.8% | 12.3% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Berkley Yiu | 2.7% | 2.9% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 13.0% | 15.0% | 13.9% | 9.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 7.5% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 4.5% | 1.2% |
| Tess Halpern | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 6.0% | 10.1% | 20.0% | 47.1% |
| William Mullray | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 10.1% | 13.6% | 24.5% | 21.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.