Race 3A

ny-maritime-fall-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Everett Botwinick 25.5% 21.1% 17.5% 14.3% 8.9% 6.0% 3.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Matias Martin 13.4% 15.7% 13.3% 13.1% 12.5% 11.0% 7.6% 7.1% 3.6% 2.1% 0.6% 0.0%
Oscar Gilroy 3.0% 3.3% 3.1% 4.4% 5.0% 5.6% 7.3% 8.7% 11.9% 18.3% 16.7% 12.7%
James Owen 11.0% 13.2% 13.7% 13.6% 11.4% 11.8% 10.0% 5.9% 5.5% 2.8% 0.8% 0.3%
Noah Hemingway 6.2% 7.4% 8.0% 9.5% 10.1% 11.1% 9.6% 13.1% 9.1% 8.7% 5.5% 1.7%
Nathaniel Hartwell 8.7% 8.9% 8.7% 9.2% 11.5% 11.4% 11.2% 9.9% 10.1% 5.8% 4.4% 0.2%
Joseph Bonacci 8.5% 7.1% 9.1% 8.8% 10.1% 9.2% 12.3% 11.5% 10.1% 7.3% 3.8% 2.2%
Jack Hammett 5.8% 4.7% 5.1% 7.9% 7.4% 8.4% 10.2% 11.0% 14.2% 12.3% 8.7% 4.3%
Elizabeth Frost 10.1% 11.7% 13.6% 11.1% 14.1% 11.0% 10.5% 8.3% 5.0% 3.2% 1.2% 0.2%
Berkley Yiu 4.1% 3.0% 4.8% 3.9% 5.0% 7.5% 8.1% 10.5% 12.6% 15.1% 16.1% 9.3%
Tess Halpern 1.8% 1.3% 0.5% 1.4% 1.5% 3.4% 2.9% 5.1% 5.5% 10.0% 18.5% 48.1%
William Mullray 1.9% 2.6% 2.6% 2.8% 2.5% 3.6% 6.5% 7.1% 11.6% 14.1% 23.7% 21.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.