Race 4A

ny-maritime-fall-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

58.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.7
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Matias Martin 13.8% 13.5% 14.0% 14.4% 12.8% 10.3% 8.8% 5.4% 3.6% 2.2% 0.8% 0.4%
Nathaniel Hartwell 7.0% 8.7% 10.2% 9.8% 11.6% 12.2% 10.5% 11.4% 8.5% 5.7% 4.1% 0.3%
Joseph Bonacci 8.3% 6.0% 8.3% 9.8% 10.5% 9.1% 11.3% 11.3% 10.5% 9.6% 3.9% 1.4%
Everett Botwinick 24.9% 24.2% 14.6% 14.2% 9.1% 5.4% 4.5% 1.9% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
James Owen 13.2% 11.3% 15.1% 13.6% 11.4% 10.8% 9.1% 5.1% 5.5% 3.8% 1.0% 0.1%
Noah Hemingway 5.9% 8.0% 9.0% 8.8% 9.5% 9.6% 12.0% 12.2% 11.1% 7.1% 5.4% 1.4%
Jack Hammett 5.2% 6.1% 5.9% 5.8% 8.4% 9.2% 9.4% 11.5% 11.9% 12.8% 9.2% 4.6%
Elizabeth Frost 13.0% 11.8% 11.8% 10.7% 10.8% 10.9% 10.4% 9.8% 5.1% 3.0% 2.0% 0.7%
Oscar Gilroy 2.2% 2.3% 3.7% 4.3% 5.5% 7.4% 8.5% 8.4% 13.3% 16.1% 16.7% 11.6%
Berkley Yiu 3.5% 4.0% 4.0% 4.6% 6.2% 6.8% 7.0% 10.7% 13.5% 14.7% 16.0% 9.0%
Tess Halpern 1.4% 1.2% 0.8% 1.6% 1.8% 3.0% 2.9% 4.5% 5.1% 11.1% 17.7% 48.9%
William Mullray 1.6% 2.9% 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 5.3% 5.6% 7.8% 10.8% 13.8% 23.2% 21.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.