Race 5A

ny-maritime-fall-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

75.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
James Owen 12.3% 13.0% 10.7% 15.3% 12.9% 9.8% 10.0% 6.9% 4.7% 2.4% 1.9% 0.1%
Everett Botwinick 26.1% 21.3% 18.1% 11.7% 9.0% 6.9% 4.0% 1.7% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Nathaniel Hartwell 9.4% 7.1% 11.4% 9.8% 10.1% 10.2% 11.0% 12.6% 9.7% 5.4% 2.6% 0.7%
Matias Martin 12.5% 17.2% 14.5% 13.5% 12.3% 10.0% 7.7% 5.4% 4.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.1%
Noah Hemingway 6.9% 6.8% 8.3% 9.4% 9.7% 11.0% 11.8% 10.7% 8.7% 8.9% 5.7% 2.1%
Joseph Bonacci 7.8% 7.6% 7.5% 8.0% 9.9% 11.5% 11.8% 11.9% 10.2% 7.5% 5.2% 1.1%
Elizabeth Frost 10.8% 12.5% 13.1% 11.1% 11.2% 11.3% 9.1% 8.8% 6.5% 3.0% 1.7% 0.9%
Jack Hammett 5.9% 4.9% 5.8% 6.3% 8.7% 9.1% 9.5% 9.8% 13.8% 13.0% 8.5% 4.7%
Oscar Gilroy 2.2% 2.3% 3.2% 5.3% 4.9% 7.7% 7.2% 11.0% 12.9% 15.3% 16.7% 11.3%
Berkley Yiu 3.5% 3.8% 3.9% 4.8% 5.5% 5.6% 9.9% 9.7% 12.6% 16.1% 14.9% 9.7%
William Mullray 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 2.7% 3.5% 4.7% 5.3% 7.6% 10.8% 14.0% 21.9% 23.9%
Tess Halpern 0.7% 1.7% 1.6% 2.1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.7% 3.9% 5.0% 12.2% 20.2% 45.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.