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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute1.54+2.16vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.16+4.22vs Predicted
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3Washington College0.21+3.10vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.73+4.49vs Predicted
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5University of Texas0.93-0.68vs Predicted
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6Columbia University0.63-1.03vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College0.37-1.38vs Predicted
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8Fordham University0.81-3.47vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan-0.22-1.99vs Predicted
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10Princeton University-0.59-1.99vs Predicted
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11Florida Institute of Technology-1.07-1.68vs Predicted
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12Williams College-1.62-1.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.16Webb Institute1.540.3%1st Place
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6.22Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.160.1%1st Place
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6.1Washington College0.210.1%1st Place
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8.49U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.730.0%1st Place
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4.32University of Texas0.930.1%1st Place
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4.97Columbia University0.630.1%1st Place
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5.62SUNY Maritime College0.370.1%1st Place
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4.53Fordham University0.810.2%1st Place
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7.01University of Michigan-0.220.0%1st Place
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8.01Princeton University-0.590.0%1st Place
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9.32Florida Institute of Technology-1.070.0%1st Place
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10.25Williams College-1.620.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everett Botwinick | 25.1% | 20.9% | 17.2% | 14.7% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Noah Hemingway | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 12.8% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 1.2% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 8.0% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 12.1% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| Oscar Gilroy | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 16.5% | 17.3% | 13.2% |
| Matias Martin | 13.7% | 15.9% | 14.5% | 13.1% | 11.5% | 10.9% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Elizabeth Frost | 10.7% | 11.3% | 13.2% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 11.0% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Nathaniel Hartwell | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| James Owen | 15.1% | 13.3% | 12.0% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Jack Hammett | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 8.9% | 2.5% |
| Berkley Yiu | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 16.3% | 15.0% | 9.4% |
| William Mullray | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 9.8% | 14.6% | 21.1% | 25.0% |
| Tess Halpern | 0.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 6.8% | 11.4% | 20.4% | 44.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.